Evaluating the growth potential of harmful cyanobacteria in aquatic environments under climate change scenarios

Ariane Guimarães; Pablo Silva; Daniel Paiva Silva

doi:10.1590/S2179-975X0424

Original Article

Evaluating the growth potential of harmful cyanobacteria in aquatic environments under climate change scenarios

Avaliando o potencial de crescimento de cianobactérias nocivas em ambientes aquáticos em cenários de mudanças climáticas

Ariane Guimarães; Pablo Silva; Daniel Paiva Silva

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S2179-975X0424 Acta Limnol. Bras. (Online), vol.37, e5, 2025

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Abstract

Aim: Neotropical freshwater environments face severe threats from climate change, posing significant risks to global water security. Extreme hydrological events, such as torrential rains and prolonged droughts, are expected to become more frequent and intense. These conditions increase the residence time of nutrients, especially phosphorus and nitrogen, favoring the proliferation of harmful cyanobacteria (cyanoHABs). Furthermore, cyanobacteria are competitive in environments with few nutrients and high CO₂ concentrations. This feature exacerbates ecological and public health challenges, as these cyanobacteria can cause harmful algal blooms that contaminate water supplies and disrupt aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to evaluate the growth of cyanobacteria in specific regions concerning the prevalence of three representative species of cyanoHABs.

Methods: We used ecological niche modeling tools (ENMs) based on occurrence records from available databases to predict the distribution of the three most frequently representative species of cyanoHABs. We employed three different modeling methods: generalized linear models (GLM), Gaussian models (GAU), and maximum entropy (MXS).

Results: The potential distributions for the current scenario were consistent with known distributions for the modeled cyanoHABs in the ENMs results. Still, we identified new areas of research for future scenarios.

Conclusions: The variations we observed indicate that the impacts of climate change vary regionally, affecting the future fitness of cyanobacteria. In the short term, they may maintain stable fitness, but a significant reduction is expected in the long term due to high temperatures. This result highlights the urgent need for mitigating actions to protect aquatic ecosystems.

Keywords

ecological niche model; cyanoHABs; Microcystis aeruginosa; Planktothrix agardhii; Raphidiopsis raciborskii; toxins

Resumo

Objetivo: Os ambientes neotropicais de água doce enfrentam graves ameaças das mudanças climáticas, representando riscos significativos para a segurança hídrica global. Espera-se que eventos hidrológicos extremos, como chuvas torrenciais e secas prolongadas, se tornem mais frequentes e intensos. Essas condições aumentam o tempo de residência dos nutrientes, principalmente fósforo e nitrogênio, favorecendo a proliferação de cianobactérias nocivas (cianoHABs). Além disso, as cianobactérias são competitivas em ambientes com poucos nutrientes e altas concentrações de CO2. Esta característica agrava os desafios ecológicos e de saúde pública, uma vez que estas cianobactérias podem causar proliferação de algas nocivas que contaminam o abastecimento de água e perturbam os ecossistemas aquáticos. Nosso objetivo foi avaliar o crescimento de cianobactérias em regiões específicas quanto à prevalência de três espécies representativas de cianoHABs.

Métodos: Utilizamos ferramentas de modelagem de nicho ecológico (ENMs) baseadas em registros de ocorrência de bancos de dados disponíveis para prever a distribuição das três espécies mais frequentemente representativas de cianoHABs. Empregamos três métodos de modelagem diferentes: modelos lineares generalizados (GLM), modelos gaussianos (GAU) e entropia máxima (MXS).

Resultados: As distribuições potenciais para o cenário atual foram consistentes com as distribuições conhecidas para os cianoHABs modelados nos resultados dos ENMs. Ainda assim, identificamos novas áreas de pesquisa para cenários futuros.

Conclusões: As variações que observamos indicam que os impactos das mudanças climáticas variam regionalmente, afetando a aptidão futura das cianobactérias. No curto prazo, podem manter a aptidão estável, mas espera-se uma redução significativa no longo prazo devido às altas temperaturas. Este resultado destaca a necessidade urgente de ações mitigadoras para proteger os ecossistemas aquáticos.

Palavras-chave

modelo de nicho ecológico; cyanoHABs; Microcystis aeruginosa; Planktothrix agardhii; Raphidiopsis raciborskii; toxinas

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Submitted date:
01/16/2024

Accepted date:
03/12/2025

Publication date:
05/07/2025

Evaluating the growth potential of harmful cyanobacteria in aquatic environments under climate change scenarios

Avaliando o potencial de crescimento de cianobactérias nocivas em ambientes aquáticos em cenários de mudanças climáticas

Ariane Guimarães; Pablo Silva; Daniel Paiva Silva

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Acta Limnol. Bras. (Online)