Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
https://app.periodikos.com.br/journal/resr/article/doi/10.1590/1806-9479.2026.296651
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Are Port wine export markets integrated? Evidence from price transmission across countries

Os mercados de exportação de vinho do Porto estão integrados? Evidências da transmissão de preços entre países

Francisca Mendonça Souza; Sofia Gouveia; Cláudia Aline de Souza Ramser; Adriano Mendonça Souza; Daniel Arruda Coronel

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2026.296651 resr, vol.64, e296651, 2026
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Abstract

Given the relevance of studies on pricing in international transactions, this paper investigated the extent of market integration among the five most important Port wine export markets, as well as how price changes in one market are transmitted to others globally. This paper analyzed cointegration and price transmission among the five largest export markets for Port wine: Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, based on monthly export data from 1995 to 2017. An ARDL-ECM model is employed to examine price co-movements and market integration using 22 years of data. The results indicated that these markets are not fully integrated, but rather partially integrated. Two main groups emerge: (i) the continental European markets and (ii) the Anglo-Saxon markets. Within each group, markets are reasonably connected. Long-run price transmission is imperfect and nonlinear, while short-run effects are limited, suggesting market segmentation. The France, Netherlands – UK axis shows relatively strong spillover effects. This paper provided an initial contribution to understanding the structure and behavior of Port wine export markets in the global economy, offering insights for both trade strategy and policy formulation.

Keywords

international trade, ARDL-ECM model, Port wine, market structure, price

Resumo

Resumo: Dada a relevância dos estudos sobre formação de preços em transações internacionais, este artigo tem como principal objetivo analisar a cointegração e a transmissão de preços entre os cinco maiores mercados de exportação de vinho do Porto: Bélgica, França, Holanda, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos, com base em dados mensais de exportação de 1995 a 2017. Utiliza-se o modelo ARDL-ECM para investigar os comovimentos e a integração de preços no curto e no longo prazo. Os resultados indicam que os mercados não são totalmente integrados, mas sim parcialmente integrados, formando dois grupos principais: os mercados europeus continentais e os anglo-saxões. Dentro de cada grupo, os vínculos são relativamente fortes, com destaque para o eixo França, Holanda, Reino Unido, onde se observam efeitos de transbordamento significativos. A transmissão de preços no longo prazo é imperfeita e não linear; já os efeitos de curto prazo são escassos, sugerindo segmentação de mercado. As conclusões têm implicações para estratégias comerciais e políticas públicas voltadas à promoção das exportações, permitindo que produtores e formuladores de políticas alinhem suas decisões com evidências empíricas sobre o comportamento dos mercados internacionais.
 

Palavras-chave

comércio internacional, modelo ARDL-ECM, vinho do Porto, estrutura de mercado, preço

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