The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine Coverage on Deaths Outcome in Africa, Subregional Differences and the need for a Renewed Multi-level Effort
El impacto de la cobertura de la vacuna COVID-19 en el resultado de muertes en África, las diferencias subregionales y la necesidad de un esfuerzo renovado de varios niveles
Armel F. Setubi, Esther Nakoya, Annie-Flore K. Tchougene, Xavier-Gabriel Fopokam
Abstract
Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 continues to raise health and socio-economical concerns globally. The recent discovery of the B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant with its critical mutations has heightened the debate about the need for a better global vaccination rollout to prevent the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 strains. Optimizing vaccine rollout in Africa is crucial for the management of the pandemic and preventing the rise of new strains. To better direct efforts and interventions it is important to know what parts of the continent necessitate more attention.
Material and Methods: 30 African countries were grouped in five geographical subregions, six countries for each subregion. Data on confirmed cases, doses administered, fully vaccinated, and deaths were extracted from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center database. The ANOVA test evaluated differences in means for these variables classified by subregions. The correlation test and the linear regression examined the relationship between these independent variables and total deaths.
Results: There was a significant regional difference in confirmed cases (P<0.0001), and in fully vaccinated (P=0.01) across the five subregions. The overall model showed that there is a significant regional difference in the three variables’ effect on total deaths (P<0.0001). The linear regression indicated an association between the total number of deaths in relation to the confirmed cases, doses administered, and fully vaccinated (P<0.0001).
Discussion: This study indicates that a relation exists between total deaths and the variables confirmed cases, doses administered, and fully vaccinated. More importantly, African countries grouped in geographical subregions perform differently in terms of vaccine rollout, and that offers insights for better and oriented interventions.
Keywords
Resumen
Introducción: El SARS-CoV-2 sigue generando preocupaciones sanitarias y socioeconómicas a nivel mundial. El reciente descubrimiento de la variante B.1.1.529 (Omicron), con sus mutaciones críticas, ha aumentado el debate sobre la necesidad de un mejor despliegue mundial de vacunación para prevenir la aparición de nuevas cepas de SARS-CoV-2. La optimización del despliegue de vacunas en África es crucial para la gestión de la pandemia y la prevención del surgimiento de nuevas cepas. Para dirigir mejor los esfuerzos y las intervenciones, es importante saber qué partes del continente necesitan más atención.
Material y Métodos: 30 países africanos fueron agrupados en cinco subregiones geográficas, seis países para cada subregión. Los datos sobre casos confirmados, dosis administradas, vacunación completa y muertes se extrajeron de la base de datos del Centro de Recursos de Coronavirus de Johns Hopkins. La prueba ANOVA evaluó diferencias de medias para estas variables clasificadas por subregiones. La prueba de correlación y la regresión lineal examinaron la relación entre estas variables independientes y el total de muertes.
Resultados: Hubo una diferencia regional significativa en casos confirmados (P<0,0001) y en vacunados completos (P=0,01) en las cinco subregiones. El modelo general mostró que existe una diferencia regional significativa en el efecto de las tres variables sobre el total de muertes (P<0,0001). La regresión lineal indicó una asociación entre el número total de muertes con relación a los casos confirmados, las dosis administradas y los vacunados completos (P<0,0001).
Discusión: Este estudio indica que existe una relación entre el total de muertes y las variables casos confirmados, dosis administradas y vacunados completos. Más importante aún, los países africanos agrupados en subregiones geográficas se desempeñan de manera diferente en términos de implementación de vacunas, y eso ofrece información para intervenciones mejores y más orientadas.
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Submitted date:
02/05/2022
Reviewed date:
03/03/2022
Accepted date:
03/16/2022
Publication date:
03/17/2022
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